Munster says SpaceX Q4 revenue estimate jumped 17% after guidance

The Deepwater investor said a $100B exiting 2026 revenue run rate implies $22 billion in Q4 revenue, while Wall Street's CY27 forecast may understate growth if monthly gains continue.

Summary

Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster backed Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) after its earnings call, saying management's guidance for an exiting 2026 revenue run rate implies about $22 billion in December-quarter revenue, roughly 17% above Q2 and far above the $7.8 billion reported in June. In separate X posts on August 5, 2026, Munster said SpaceX's 90-day exit clauses in compute contracts with Anthropic and Alphabet Inc.'s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) Google were likely to remain because the company was "still in the top of the first when it comes to inference" (running AI models on live tasks). He argued Wall Street's roughly $100 billion CY27 revenue view, based on about $8.5 billion in monthly revenue by December 2026, already implies "impressive 122% y/y" growth but could still be too low; a 5% month-over-month increase from that December level would produce about $135 billion in 2027 revenue. Separately, Investor Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC said buying the dip made little sense with 911.5M new SPCX shares potentially entering the float (shares available for trading) tomorrow, while The All In Podcast host Peter Diamandis backed a possible $10 trillion valuation after CEO Elon Musk said SpaceX revenue could reach $1 trillion by the end of the decade. SpaceX shares surged 1.51% to $109.90 in pre-market trading on Thursday, even as Benzinga Edge Rankings showed unfavorable short-, medium- and long-term price trends.

Terms & Concepts
  • revenue run rate: Annualized pace implied by recent revenue.
  • inference: Running AI models on live tasks.
  • float: Shares available for public trading.