CryptoQuant data shows exposure fell from 1.33 million to 1.20 million BTC as analysts warn the Bitcoin treasury model is weakening and Coinbase Premium stays negative for a record 93 days.
Bitcoin institutional investment vehicles reduced their combined holdings by 10% over the past three months, with CryptoQuant data showing exposure across trusts, ETFs and closed-end funds falling from 1.33 million to 1.20 million BTC. The retrenchment comes as pressure builds on corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies, where companies used elevated equity valuations to raise capital and buy more Bitcoin. Novaque Research said that model is "breaking" as some firms trade below net asset value, making new financing dilutive rather than supportive. The analysis points to strain among Bitcoin treasury companies, even as Strategy, the largest public corporate Bitcoin holder, sold 1,638 BTC last week. CryptoQuant said on-chain data supports a loss of institutional demand, though it cannot directly isolate treasury companies. In Strategy's case, the discount to its Bitcoin holdings depends on valuation method: basic share count showed a 0.7 discount as of Thursday, while including $8 billion in debt and the liquidation preference of STRC preferred stock lifts mNAV to 1.03. The pullback has coincided with a record 93-day stretch of negative readings in the Coinbase Premium index, which tracks the price gap between Coinbase and Binance BTC/USDT pairs and is often used as a gauge of U.S. investor demand. Analysts argue a return to positive premium is needed for a broader BTC price recovery. FOUR said muted U.S. institutional buying points more to a demand shortage than aggressive selling, while Citi said ETF flows remain an "important driver of prices" when it cut its BTC price forecast to $53,000 through 2027.