Rates stayed at 3.50% to 3.75%, three officials backed a hike, and shifting September odds, ETF flows and a proposal for fewer Fed meetings kept Bitcoin traders focused on macro risk.
Federal Reserve officials left the policy rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29, 2026, but a 9-to-3 split, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan favoring an immediate 25-basis-point increase, kept markets focused on the odds of further tightening and on Chair Kevin Warsh's push for less guidance. Warsh said policymakers would not be "constrained by market prices" and later argued there is only a 2 percent inflation target, while Kraken tracking marked the three-member hawkish dissent as the first unified split of that kind since September 2016. Mortgage markets reacted quickly, with Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.66%, and Bitcoin remained in macro traders' crosshairs because higher rate expectations can strengthen the dollar and make Treasuries more attractive than risk assets. Bitcoin traded at $64,137 early Wednesday, about 49% below its October 6, 2025 peak of $126,198. September pricing also swung sharply, with combined Kalshi and Polymarket odds shifting to 54.2% for a hold and 44.6% for a hike, while spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $170.1 million on August 3 after losing $265.4 million on July 31. The market is now awaiting payrolls, CPI, PPI, July Fed minutes and Jackson Hole for clearer direction.