Glassnode says Bitcoin options skew points to a bearish market outlook

Record-low 23% upside implied volatility suggests traders have largely stopped positioning for a Bitcoin rally, even as downside protection remains relatively cheap.

Summary

Bitcoin options pricing is flashing a bearish signal as skew, the gap in implied volatility between call and put options, reflects fading expectations for upside rather than a rush to hedge against a sharp selloff. Glassnode said the market’s weak tone is being driven by a steep drop in upside implied volatility, which fell to a record low of 23%. Downside implied volatility remains low as well, but not to the same extreme, indicating there are almost no investors currently betting on a Bitcoin rally.

Terms & Concepts
  • options skew: The gap in implied volatility between call and put options.
  • implied volatility: An options-market measure of expected future price swings.
  • call and put options: Contracts that bet on rising or falling prices, respectively.