The shift follows a more than 5.5% four-day rally to record highs, with traders also assigning a one-in-three chance that the index crosses 8,200 this year.
Kalshi traders now see about a 66% chance that the S&P 500 will trade above 8,000 in 2026 after the benchmark index climbed more than 5.5% over four sessions and reached fresh records. As of Wednesday's close, the index was about 3.6% below that level. The contracts ask speculators whether the S&P 500 will trade above specific thresholds in 2026, with Google Finance used to resolve the outcome. The repricing comes after the index pushed higher on easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran in the Middle East, a strong earnings season and the near-collapse of Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund. The move also suggests investors increasingly view the late-June and July weakness in AI trade (investing tied to artificial intelligence) momentum names as a reset rather than the end of the rally. Truist Wealth's chief market strategist Keith Lerner said the bull market case remains supported by rising earnings estimates, resilient economic growth and broader market participation. Kalshi traders are also pricing a one-in-three chance that the S&P 500 crosses 8,200 this year.