Bitcoin prediction markets top $120 million as year-end $70,000 odds reach 68%
With Bitcoin near $63,500 on Aug. 12, 2026, Polymarket and Kalshi traders priced bullish near-term and year-end paths, though their probabilities differ because the venues use different settlement benchmarks.
Bitcoin traded near $63,500 at about 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Aug. 12, 2026, as six Polymarket and Kalshi contracts drew more than $120 million in combined volume, offering a trader-implied view of near-term and year-end price expectations. Polymarket's largest Bitcoin market implied a 68% chance the token reaches $70,000 before the end of 2026, while a separate August market and a newer Polymarket reading put the odds of clearing $65,000 this month at about 69% to 70%, signaling firm near-term sentiment rather than a guaranteed outcome. Kalshi showed a 12% chance Bitcoin hits $100,000 before January 2027, but the two venues are not directly comparable because Polymarket settles against Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candlesticks and Kalshi uses the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin real-time index.
- Polymarket: A prediction market platform where users trade contracts tied to event outcomes, including cryptocurrency price levels.
- Kalshi: A prediction market platform offering event-based contracts, including markets on Bitcoin price thresholds.
- CF Benchmarks Bitcoin real-time index: A Bitcoin reference price index used by Kalshi to settle its contracts.