Nike stock tumbles to September 2014 low, down 78% from 2021 peak

Nike shares closed at $39.09, down 4.03% on Monday and roughly 78% below their November 2021 peak, leaving the stock at its lowest level since September 2014 and marking what market commentators described as the biggest drawdown in the company's history. The decline has erased more than $200 billion in market value over 57 months and reinforced concerns that Nike is stuck in a prolonged breakdown rather than a short-term setback. The pressure is tied to both weakening business fundamentals and deteriorating market sentiment. In the latest quarter, wholesale revenue rose 4%, but Nike Direct fell 7% and Brand Digital declined 12%, highlighting continued strain in the company's direct-to-consumer model. Greater China remained a major weak spot, with fourth-quarter revenue down 17%, even as rival On Holding has continued to report double-digit sales growth. Conor Power, citing an AlphaSense summary, described Nike as a "show-me" story in which innovation has become a "survival requirement." Technical indicators have also turned sharply negative. Nike recently traded below its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, with the shorter averages acting as resistance and momentum readings such as the RSI and MACD signaling continued downside pressure. Thierry Borgeat, CIO at Arvy, said the stock's chart reflects a "Stage 4" decline, a pattern he said typically involves a 72% fall and a five-year recovery period, with only about half of such stocks returning to prior highs. Nike shares are down 38.64% year-to-date, 49.21% over the past year and 39.69% over the last six months.