Prediction markets price cautious bitcoin path through 2026 as Bernstein remains constructive

Prediction-market traders are pricing a wide battlefield for bitcoin through 2026 rather than a one-way bullish consensus, even as Bernstein remains constructive on a multi-year cycle recovery. On Polymarket, nearly $59.7 million has traded in contracts on what price bitcoin will hit before the end of 2026; with bitcoin recently above $75,000, participants assign about a 69% probability to $85,000, 49% to $90,000, 29% to $100,000, 20% to $110,000, 13% to $120,000, 4% to $150,000, and only 2%, 1%, and 1% to $250,000, $500,000, and $1 million, while downside touch odds stand near 67% for $70,000, 44% for $65,000, 29% for $60,000, 17% for $50,000, and 8% for $40,000. Those contracts settle when a threshold is touched, not on the year-end close. A thinner Polymarket market on the timing of $100,000 and Kalshi markets on $100,000, $150,000, and whether $50,000 arrives before $100,000 flash similar caution, with Kalshi’s $100,000 odds at 7% before October, 22% before December, and 29% before January 2027, a roughly 21% chance $50,000 is hit first, and only 6% odds of $150,000 before January 2027 despite more than $36 million in volume on that contract. Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani-led base case still envisions roughly $125,000 by end-2026, a new high near $150,000 by mid-2027, and a cycle peak around $300,000 by end-2029—supported by institutional ownership, ETF demand, bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap, and sovereign-debt pressures—with a bull case previously outlined at $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029 and a longer-term $1 million view by end-2033 retained from the firm’s cycle work; near-term, the active hedge levels remain $85,000–$100,000 on the upside and $70,000–$60,000 on the downside.