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Musk says SpaceX revenue could reach $3.5 trillion by 2033

Musk says SpaceX revenue could reach $3.5 trillion by 2033

Musk's personal timeline beats Morgan Stanley's 2040 model by seven years after the bank called SpaceX attractively valued and said investors still underestimate Starship's scale.

Fact Check
Multiple independent accounts reported the statement within minutes of each other on 2026-08-27, and the strongest of them trace to a single original Musk post: the X post by @Teslaconomics and the X post by @ttvresearch both attach elonmusk status 2093063724282138821 as their source, with @ttvresearch describing it as an X post Musk shared and noting SPCX moved higher into the close on it. The X post by @Kalshi and the X post by @WatcherGuru independently cary the same number and timeframe. Wording across sources is consistent on the substance ($3.5 trillion annual revenue, 'around 2033'), with only minor variation between 'by 2033' and 'around 2033'. I could not fetch Musk's original post directly, since the from:elonmusk archive query returned an HTTP 429 rate-limit error, so attribution is established by convergent secondary citation rather than by reading the primary post. The Phemex article confirms the claim circulated but weakens the documentary trail: it sources from the Watcher.Guru post and notes no filing, financial model, or official SpaceX statement accompanied the figure. Assessment applies to Musk having made the statement, not to the projection being achievable; the 2033 target is inherently unverifiable now, and the figure is described by the sources themselves as an estimate or best guess.
Summary

Elon Musk said his best guess for roughly $3.5 trillion in SpaceX revenue is around 2033, seven years ahead of a Morgan Stanley projection of $3.5 trillion by 2040 and extending his earlier call for $1 trillion by 2030. The bank described SpaceX as attractively valued, said investors underestimate Starship's scale, sketched 5,800 annual Starship launches from eight pads, and reiterated an Overweight rating after the $100 billion Starbase Louisiana plan. Mach 33 CEO Aaron Burnett noted the bank's figure is nearly half the company's stated goal and a decade later than its target. Musk has tied Starbase, set to start construction in 2027 with a first Starship launch by 2029, to higher flight rates, a 10,000-launch annual goal by 2030, and Flight Test 14's planned upper-stage catch. Shares slipped 0.27% to $140.49 in overnight trading Thursday after closing near $141.

Terms & Concepts
  • Starship: SpaceX's next-generation heavy-lift rocket and spacecraft system central to higher launch cadence and long-term revenue models.
  • Overweight rating: A brokerage recommendation indicating a security is expected to outperform a relevant benchmark or peer group.
  • Starbase Louisiana: SpaceX's planned $100 billion U.S. Gulf Coast spaceport, with construction eyed for 2027 and a first Starship launch targeted by 2029.