Iran-U.S. strikes lift oil prices as Polymarket sees 60% chance WTI tops $90

U.S. forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island after observing preparations to deploy sea-mine rockets into the Strait of Hormuz, the critical oil chokepoint that narrows to about 39 kilometers between Larak and Oman’s Great Quoin Island. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the attack killed and injured several fighters and civilians, vowed punishment of the aggressor, and reported ballistic-missile strikes on two U.S. air bases in Jordan, missile fire toward regional targets and U.S. vessels in the strait, the shootdown of a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper that crashed into the Persian Gulf, and dozens of explosive drones aimed at U.S. forces at Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE; Jordan said it intercepted eight missiles. Brent November futures rose about 2.8% to roughly $90.60–$90.61 a barrel and WTI gained about 2.5% to $85.53 as Hormuz traffic thinned and traders still estimated 6–8 million barrels a day moving through limited passages, while President Trump separately said Iran’s Kharg Island terminal was being heavily bombed—a claim the U.S. military had not confirmed—and said Venezuelan oil would help refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole inflation focus left Friday’s S&P 500 down 0.25% to 7,711.76, the Nasdaq off 0.52% to 26,402.42 and the Dow nearly flat at 53,559.99, with Monday futures softer as markets priced about a 57% chance of a September rate increase, the two-year yield near 4.33%, the dollar near 99.60 and Bitcoin near $77,000; Polymarket raised the odds WTI exceeds $90 in September 2026 to 60% as nearly $400 million in crypto positions were liquidated.