Dragonfly Investor Omar Warns 100 bps Cut Could Deeply Impact Circle's Revenue and Valuation

Omar states a 100 bps rate cut may reduce Circle's revenue by $618M and gross profit by $303M, while increasing its EV/annualized gross profit multiple from 42x to 60.4x.

USDC

Summary

Dragonfly investor Omar stated that a 100 basis point rate cut could slash Circle's annualized revenue by $618M (-23%) and gross profit by $303M (-30%), with margins dropping by 3.3 points. This adjustment is projected to raise the company's valuation multiple from 42x to 60.4x, approximately 50% higher, with potential offset measures involving USDC supply.

Terms & Concepts
  • Basis Points (bps): A unit equal to 0.01%, used to describe changes in interest rates or yield percentages.
  • EV/Annualized Gross Profit: A valuation metric comparing a company's enterprise value to its annualized gross profit.