Omar states a 100 bps rate cut may reduce Circle's revenue by $618M and gross profit by $303M, while increasing its EV/annualized gross profit multiple from 42x to 60.4x.
Dragonfly investor Omar stated that a 100 basis point rate cut could slash Circle's annualized revenue by $618M (-23%) and gross profit by $303M (-30%), with margins dropping by 3.3 points. This adjustment is projected to raise the company's valuation multiple from 42x to 60.4x, approximately 50% higher, with potential offset measures involving USDC supply.