CME FedWatch Predicts 89.7% Chance of 25 bps Fed Rate Cut in September

According to CME FedWatch, investors assign a 90.5% probability to a 25 basis points cut in September, with October showing nearly even odds between a 25 bps and 50 bps cumulative reduction.

Summary

CME FedWatch indicates a 90.5% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 9.5% chance of no change. For October, probabilities are 4.3% for no change, 46.3% for a cumulative 25 bps cut, and 49.3% for a cumulative 50 bps cut. These figures reflect futures market expectations of upcoming monetary policy decisions.

Terms & Concepts
  • CME FedWatch: A tool provided by CME Group that tracks market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate changes based on futures prices.
  • bps (basis points): A unit of measure for interest rates and financial percentages, where 1 basis point equals 0.01%.