Prediction markets on Polymarket price less than a 1% chance of President Trump resigning today, as attention turns to a scheduled Oval Office announcement expected at 2 P.M. ET.
Polymarket data on September 2 shows less than a 1% chance of President Donald Trump resigning today, despite over $1 million in trading volume on the same-day contract. The Oval Office scheduled a 2 P.M. ET announcement with no disclosed topic, fueling speculation. Year-end resignation odds trade near 6%, while removal via the 25th Amendment is around 7%. Approval rating contracts project a 19% chance of his rating falling to 40% or lower in 2025. Market rules clarify that resignation resolves on announcement alone, and 25th Amendment removal requires Section 4 procedures. Trump was recently diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiency, though official reports ruled out severe cardiac issues, and he was seen golfing on Labor Day. Social media speculation continues, but traders price resignation as a tail risk event.