CME FedWatch Shows 88% Chance of Fed Rate Cut in September
CME FedWatch data reveals an 87.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, signaling continued expectations for monetary easing.
Fact Check
The statement is strongly supported by the evidence. An ABC News article from July 31, 2024, explicitly cites the CME FedWatch Tool and states the probability of a September interest rate cut was 'more than 85%'. This figure is highly consistent with the 88% claimed in the statement, especially since these probabilities fluctuate. Other sources from the same time period corroborate a high likelihood of a cut. Evidence with dates in 2025 was disregarded as not relevant.
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Summary
CME FedWatch data shows an 87.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with a 12.3% probability of maintaining current rates. This update follows a shift in market expectations for future monetary policy adjustments.
Terms & Concepts
- FedWatch: A tool provided by CME Group that tracks market expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate decisions based on futures market data.
- Rate Cut: A monetary policy action where a central bank lowers interest rates to stimulate economic activity by reducing borrowing costs.