JP Morgan Anticipates September Rate Cut Despite CPI Risks
JPMorgan’s chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points, with some internal opposition but continued projections of future easing.
Fact Check
Multiple credible sources from August 2025 directly corroborate the statement. A Reuters article explicitly states, 'J.P.Morgan now expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates... at its September meeting.' Simultaneously, other sources from the same time frame, including one quoting J.P. Morgan economists, highlight concerns about rising prices and an upcoming CPI report, establishing the context of 'CPI risks'.
Summary
JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli predicted the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a 4.0%-4.25% range next week. He noted that two or three committee members may oppose further cuts, though none support leaving rates unchanged. Feroli also indicated that the Fed’s dot plot will likely continue to suggest additional rate cuts beyond 2025.
Terms & Concepts
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): A measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, used as an indicator of inflation.
- Core CPI: A version of the Consumer Price Index that excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer view of underlying inflation trends.
- Basis Point: A unit equal to one-hundredth of a percentage point, used to measure changes in interest rates and other financial percentages.