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Markets Price in 54% Chance of U.S. Government Shutdown

Markets Price in 54% Chance of U.S. Government Shutdown

Kalshi data shows the highest shutdown probability in months as Senate Democrats threaten to let funding lapse over a dispute regarding key healthcare provisions.

Fact Check
Evidence from Investopedia (Source 13) directly confirms the statement, reporting that as of February 25, 2025, 'political betting markets were predicting a government shutdown in mid-March is likely, with Polymarket placing the odds at 54%.' Source 8 from Fortune corroborates this, stating odds were 'more than 50%' on a different date, confirming that markets have priced in such probabilities.
    Reference: 12
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