
The Federal Reserve begins its first easing cycle since December, with officials signaling 1–3 additional cuts in 2025 as Powell balances inflation risks and labor market softness.
The U.S. Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 4.00%–4.25%, ending a five-meeting pause and marking its first cut since December. Officials’ dot-plot guidance points to 1–3 more cuts in 2025, with a plurality expecting 75 bps. New governor Stephen Miran dissented, favoring a 50 bps cut and projecting up to 150 bps this year. Chair Jerome Powell highlighted tariff-driven inflation risks and weakening labor demand, stressing a meeting-by-meeting policy approach. Market reactions were mixed, and Bitcoin showed little immediate response as traders awaited clearer direction.