The Fed’s first cut since December signals the start of a possible easing cycle, though Chair Jerome Powell warned of tariff-driven inflation risks and emphasized a cautious, data-dependent approach.
The Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%, marking its first cut since December after five meetings on hold. Dot-plot guidance indicates most officials expect 1–3 further cuts in 2025, with a plurality favoring 75 basis points. New governor Stephen Miran dissented, preferring a 50-basis-point cut and projecting up to 150 basis points by year-end. Chair Jerome Powell warned about tariff-driven inflation risks and highlighted weakening labor demand, stressing a meeting-by-meeting approach. Market reactions were mixed, and Bitcoin’s price response remained muted as traders awaited clearer signals.