Kalshi Leads On-Chain Prediction Markets With 62% Trading Volume Share
Data from Dune Analytics shows Kalshi surpassing Polymarket in weekly trading, though Polymarket advances U.S. expansion through regulatory approval and partnerships.
Kalshi captured 62% of on-chain prediction market trading volume from Sept. 11–17, totaling over $500 million in weekly activity and $189 million in average open interest, according to Dune Analytics. Competitor Polymarket held 37% share with $430 million in volume and $164 million average open interest. Kalshi’s lower open interest-to-volume ratio of 0.29 suggests higher trading turnover, while Polymarket’s 0.38 reflects longer-term positions. Despite trailing in volume, Polymarket is expanding in the U.S., completing its acquisition of regulated derivatives exchange QCX and partnering with Stocktwits to launch earnings-based markets.
- Open Interest: The total value of outstanding contracts in a market that have not been settled, indicating the level of active positions.
- Prediction Market: A trading platform where participants buy and sell contracts based on outcomes of future events, with prices reflecting collective probability estimates.
- On-Chain: Transactions or activities recorded directly on a blockchain, ensuring transparency and immutability.