Kalshi Prediction Market Exceeds $10 Billion in Notional Volume
Kalshi’s partnership with Robinhood and growing market share reflect a significant shift in the competitive landscape of prediction markets, with both platforms breaking volume records in September.
Fact Check
The evidence strongly supports the statement. Multiple sources report Kalshi's trading volume in figures well above the $10 billion threshold. Specifically, Source 1 states that Kalshi hit a '$40B Volume Milestone,' and Source 6 mentions the company is on track for '$50B in annualized trading volume.' These figures, corroborated by other reports of multi-billion dollar monthly and weekly volumes, confirm that Kalshi's notional volume has exceeded $10 billion.
Summary
Kalshi and Polymarket reached a combined trading volume of $1.44 billion in September 2025, marking a major milestone for the prediction market sector. Kalshi’s market share surged to 60%, partly driven by its partnership with Robinhood, which gives access to its large retail user base. This marks a reversal of the earlier trend where Polymarket held a dominant share. Kalshi’s rise highlights the increasing mainstream interest in speculative prediction markets.
Terms & Concepts
- Prediction Market: A marketplace where participants trade contracts based on the outcomes of future events, with prices reflecting collective expectations.
- Notional Volume: The total value of contracts traded in a market, based on the underlying asset's nominal worth rather than its market value.