According to Polymarket, the likelihood of resolving the US government shutdown by late November stands at 75%, with diminishing odds for earlier resolution.
Polymarket data suggests a 75% probability that the US government shutdown will conclude by November 30, while the chance of resolution before November 15 is 59%. Short-term expectations remain low, with only a 6% likelihood of the shutdown ending before October 24. These probabilities reflect market sentiment on the timing of a potential political agreement to restore federal operations.