Back

IMF Raises Global Growth Forecast to 3.2% for 2025

Updated projections show stronger U.S. growth and falling global inflation, driven by favorable trade, fiscal reforms, and easier financial conditions.

Summary

The IMF now expects global economic growth of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, an increase from July’s forecast of 3.0% and 3.1%. U.S. economic growth is projected at 2.0% for 2025 and 2.1% for 2026, supported by reduced effective tariff rates, tax reform-driven fiscal support, and more accommodative financial conditions. Global inflation is forecast to decline from 5.8% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026.

Terms & Concepts
  • Economic Growth Forecast: Quantitative projections estimating the future expansion rate of a country's or global economy based on economic models and current data.
  • Effective Tariff Rates: The actual average tariff rate applied to imports, accounting for trade agreements and exemptions, influencing the cost of traded goods.
  • Fiscal Boost: An increase in economic activity resulting from government policies such as tax cuts, spending increases, or reforms.