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Reuters Poll Shows Analysts Expect Fed to Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points

Reuters Poll Shows Analysts Expect Fed to Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points

CME FedWatch data shows a near-certain market expectation for an October Fed rate cut, reinforcing economists’ forecast of continued monetary easing into year-end.

Summary

CME FedWatch data on October 25 indicated a 98.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, compared to a 1.7% chance of holding rates steady. This aligns with a Reuters poll showing 115 of 117 economists expect such a move at the October 29 meeting, which would set the federal funds target range at 3.75%-4.00%. Most also anticipate another quarter-point cut in December 2025. Year-end 2025 rate projections vary widely, from 2.25%-2.50% to 3.75%-4.00%.

Terms & Concepts
  • Basis Point: A unit equal to one hundredth of a percentage point, used to describe changes in interest rates or yields.
  • Federal Reserve: The central banking system of the United States, responsible for monetary policy, including setting interest rates.
  • CME FedWatch: A tool provided by the CME Group that estimates market expectations for changes in Federal Reserve interest rates based on Fed Funds futures pricing.