Polymarket Bettors See 61% Chance Trump Loses Supreme Court Tariff Case

The provided sources consistently and authoritatively confirm the core elements of the statement. Multiple sources, including direct links to Polymarket, verify the existence of a prediction market titled 'Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?'.All relevant sources indicate that the market predicted a loss for Trump with a probability greater than 50%. While the exact percentage fluctuates, which is characteristic of a live prediction market, the reported figures provide a clear range. The evidence shows probabilities of Trump losing at 53%, 70%, 73%, and 77% at different points in time. The statement's specific claim of a 61% probability is not explicitly mentioned in any of the provided snippets. However, this figure falls squarely within the documented range of 53% to 77%. Given that market odds change continuously, it is highly plausible that the probability was 61% at the time the statement was made. Therefore, the statement is a credible representation of the market's sentiment, and the specific number is well within the bounds established by the high-quality evidence.