Probability of Fed 25bps Rate Cut in December Falls to 65%

The assessment is "likely_true" with high confidence based on overwhelming and highly authoritative evidence. The most credible sources directly corroborate the statement. Two separate primary sources from CME Group, the very entity that creates the FedWatch Tool used to calculate these probabilities, confirm the number. An official CME Group social media post states the probability is "exactly 65%," and a market report video from the same organization cites it as 64.5%, a negligible difference likely due to rounding or minor timing variations. Furthermore, a highly reliable secondary source, The Wall Street Journal, independently reports "65% odds of a third cut," providing strong corroboration. A Reuters article presents a conflicting figure of 71%. However, this does not significantly undermine the assessment because market-implied probabilities are highly dynamic and change constantly based on new information. The Reuters report is dated two days before the CME video, suggesting the 71% figure was likely an older data point, and the market sentiment shifted to 65% in the intervening period. Other sources are either contextual (e.g., the Federal Reserve's official pages, which confirm the event but not the probability) or irrelevant (e.g., the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey). The weight of the most direct, authoritative, and timely evidence strongly supports the statement.