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Alternative Data Shows Significant October Decline in US Employment

Alternative Data Shows Significant October Decline in US Employment

Goldman Sachs reports the steepest U.S. job drop since 2020, estimating a 50,000 decline in October amid policy-driven retirements, while alternative data suggests a smaller decrease.

Summary

Goldman Sachs estimated that U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by about 50,000 in October, the largest monthly decrease since 2020. Employment growth slowed from an 85,000 increase in September to 50,000 in October, with around 100,000 jobs lost due to the Trump administration’s 'delayed departure plan.' Revelio Labs’ alternative dataset, based on job postings and staffing data, suggested a significantly smaller drop of 9,100 jobs, highlighting methodological differences in assessing labor market conditions.

Terms & Concepts
  • Nonfarm Payrolls: A measure of the number of paid U.S. workers excluding farm employees, government workers, and certain other job categories.
  • Alternative Data: Non-traditional information sources, such as online listings and social media, used to gain economic insights.
  • Revelio: A labor market analytics firm that aggregates employment data from job boards, company career sites, and staffing agencies.