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Reuters Survey Shows Majority Expect Fed Rate Cut in December

Reuters Survey Shows Majority Expect Fed Rate Cut in December

Polymarket and CME FedWatch data show rising odds of a December 25 basis point Fed rate cut, underscoring mounting market anticipation ahead of key labor data releases.

Summary

Market expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve policy have shifted further as Polymarket data shows a 52% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, with no-change odds falling to 46%. CME FedWatch reported a 48.9% chance of a cut, up from 42.4% yesterday. The U.S. Labor Department plans to release missing weekly jobless claims data by Thursday, potentially influencing rate forecasts.

Terms & Concepts
  • Federal Reserve: The central banking system of the United States, responsible for setting interest rates and regulating monetary policy.
  • Basis Point: A unit equal to one hundredth of a percentage point, used to measure interest rate changes.
  • CME FedWatch: A tool from CME Group that calculates the probability of changes in Federal Reserve interest rates based on futures market pricing.