Kalshi Data Shows Shift in December Federal Reserve Rate Expectations

The evidence strongly supports the statement. Two independent sources, a social media post from a financial news aggregator and another from a political commentator's page, directly reference data from a Kalshi prediction market concerning the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision. One source explicitly states the market is "split 50/50 on whether or not the Federal Reserve will cut," which is a specific market expectation. The other source contrasts the Kalshi market's pricing with expectations from CME traders. The very nature of a prediction market is to fluctuate and reflect changing expectations over time. The fact that the market's current state is being reported on, especially a notable state like a 50/50 split or a divergence from other indicators, implies a dynamic environment and strongly suggests a change from a previous state of expectations. While the sources do not provide a 'before and after' comparison to explicitly document the change, their content makes it highly probable that the Kalshi market data is reflecting an evolution in sentiment. The other provided sources are irrelevant as they concern different topics (Bank of Japan, government shutdown), different timelines (December 2025), or do not mention Kalshi, and therefore do not contradict the assessment.