December Rate Cut Probability Drops as October Jobs Report Canceled

The evidence from multiple high-authority sources strongly supports the statement. The assessment is built on two key claims within the statement: 1) the probability of a December rate cut decreased, and 2) this was a result of the cancelled October Jobs Report.First, the T. Rowe Price market update explicitly confirms that the probability of a December rate cut has declined, citing the CME FedWatch tool as the source. The CME Group's own page for Federal Funds Futures validates this tool as the authoritative source for these probabilities.Second, several sources establish a clear causal link between the cancelled report and the Fed's decision-making. The NBC News article states directly that the report's absence complicates the Fed's process. A Reuters article reinforces this, explaining that such a data gap creates "economic fog" and uncertainty that would factor into a December rate decision. Most compellingly, comments from Fed official Mary Daly, a primary source, indicate the Fed "needs more data before decision," directly implying that a lack of data (like a cancelled jobs report) would hinder a decision to act, such as cutting rates.While some sources discuss the data delays without connecting them to the Fed, none of the high-relevance sources contradict the statement. The evidence consistently points to a single narrative: the cancellation of a key economic report created uncertainty, making the Federal Reserve less likely to change policy, which was reflected in market probabilities as a decrease in the chance of a rate cut.