Over Half of U.S. Homes Decline in Value in Past Year

The assessment is "likely_true" with high confidence based on strong, consistent, and direct evidence from multiple sources. Several sources with high relevance and authority directly support the statement. Specifically, the Scotsman Guide and a Nuvision Federal Credit Union report explicitly state that more than half of U.S. homes lost value over the past year, with the latter providing a precise figure of 53%. Critically, both of these sources cite Zillow, a primary and highly authoritative source for real estate data, as the origin of this information. This claim is further corroborated by other secondary sources like AOL and an ABC10 News social media post, which also reference the same underlying data.The contradictory evidence is significantly weaker and less direct. The Zillow forecast focuses on *future* growth, which does not invalidate data about a *past* decline. Other contradictory sources, featuring the NAR chief economist, discuss national average price trends (e.g., a "zero percent increase") or make future predictions. A national average price can remain stable even if more than 50% of individual homes decline in value, as this can be offset by large gains in a smaller number of homes. Therefore, these sources do not directly refute the specific claim. Several other sources were dismissed as irrelevant because they focused on local markets, employment data, or international trade. In conclusion, the weight of direct, consistent evidence from credible sources makes the statement very likely to be true.