According to Polymarket data, traders now assign a decreased chance to a December Fed rate cut, with holding rates steady gaining majority confidence amid heightened trading activity.
On Nov. 20, Polymarket data showed the probability of a Federal Reserve 25 basis point December rate cut dropped to 30%, while the likelihood of holding rates steady rose to 68%. The related prediction market event recorded $123.6 million in trading volume, indicating strong engagement over U.S. interest rate expectations.