Morgan Stanley Sees No December Fed Cut Amid Strong Jobs Data

Morgan Stanley Sees No December Fed Cut Amid Strong Jobs Data

JPMorgan now forecasts rate cuts in January and April 2024, while a White House adviser warns delaying action could harm economic growth.

Fact Check
The evidence strongly and directly supports the statement. A highly authoritative Reuters news report explicitly states, 'Morgan Stanley drops call for December Fed rate cut after strong...' This source directly confirms that Morgan Stanley changed its forecast to 'no cut' for December and links this change to strong economic data. Further corroboration comes from another news article that directly quotes a Morgan Stanley economist, Michael Gapen, connecting the 'reduced chances of a December rate cut to the status of jobs data.' These two sources, one a top-tier news agency and the other quoting a named economist from the firm, provide powerful, consistent evidence for all parts of the claim.While a speech by Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggests the labor market is weak, this does not contradict the statement. The statement is about what *Morgan Stanley* has predicted and *their stated reason*, not about the objective truth of the labor market's strength or the unanimous view of Fed officials. It is common for different institutions to have varying interpretations of economic data. The other primary sources from the Federal Reserve and Morgan Stanley are either too general (e.g., global outlooks, insight indexes) or on different topics (e.g., bank supervision) to challenge the specific claim. The weight of the direct, corroborating evidence makes the statement highly credible.
Summary

Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Gapen previously indicated no December Federal Reserve rate cut due to strong jobs data, projecting cuts in January, April, and June 2024. On Nov. 21, JPMorgan withdrew its forecast for a December cut, now expecting rate reductions in January and April 2024. White House adviser Kevin Hassett cautioned that pausing cuts could be poorly timed, with a potential government shutdown projected to lower Q4 GDP by 1.5 points.

Terms & Concepts
  • Terminal rate: The final interest rate level expected before the central bank stops adjusting rates during a monetary policy cycle.
  • Federal Reserve: The central banking system of the United States, responsible for monetary policy, financial regulation, and economic stability.