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Federal Open Market Committee Expected to Hold Rates in December

CME FedWatch data now indicates a strong likelihood of a December rate cut following dovish signals from multiple Federal Reserve officials.

Summary

On November 22, CME FedWatch reported a 71.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, compared to 8.2% for no change. This shift comes after several Fed officials expressed dovish views, influencing market expectations ahead of FOMC meetings on December 10 and January 28, 2026.

Terms & Concepts
  • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): The U.S. Federal Reserve body responsible for setting monetary policy, including interest rates.
  • Rate Cut: A reduction in the benchmark interest rate to stimulate economic activity.
  • Basis Point (bps): A unit equal to 1/100th of a percentage point, used to describe changes in interest rates or yields.