The assessment is "likely_true" with high confidence based on strong, direct evidence from a credible source. A high-authority financial news article from The Street directly and explicitly states that traders on the Polymarket platform were pricing the odds of a 25-basis-point cut in December at "near 85%." This piece of evidence alone is a powerful confirmation of the statement.Further evidence provides strong corroboration. Another source confirms that Polymarket has an active market for the "Fed decision in December," establishing the plausibility of the claim. Several other sources, while not all naming Polymarket, report a consensus probability in the 82% to 86% range for a December rate cut, indicating that the 85% figure was the widely accepted market sentiment at the time. The fact that some sources attribute a similar probability to other indicators, like the CME FedWatch tool or Deutsche Bank, is not contradictory; it is common for different financial instruments and prediction markets to converge on a similar probability for a high-profile event. There is no evidence that contradicts the statement. The combination of direct confirmation from a highly authoritative source and consistent, corroborating information from multiple other sources makes the original statement highly likely to be true.