A Reuters survey shows most economists and futures markets anticipate a December Fed rate cut, reflecting consensus on supporting a cooling U.S. labor market.
Goldman Sachs analysts and Reuters’ IFR report a strong likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December amid weak labor market signals. A Reuters survey found 82% of 108 economists expect a 25 basis point cut, aligning with futures markets showing an 85% chance. November ADP employment is projected to rise by just 10,000 versus October’s 42,000. Although expectations for 2026 remain divided with no clear quarterly majority, near-term consensus points to easing policy. Limited upcoming data supports forecasts for December action, with a policy reassessment slated for January after further jobs reports.