December U.S. Rate Cut Odds Exceed 90% Ahead of FOMC Meeting

The assessment is based on a strong consensus across multiple high-authority sources that the market-implied probability of a December rate cut was extremely high. The primary sources, the CME FedWatch Tool and the Atlanta Fed's Market Probability Tracker, are the definitive origins for this type of data. The secondary sources, which interpret and report this data, provide the specific figures needed to evaluate the statement.There is direct and compelling evidence supporting the statement. One news report from Yahoo Finance, citing a JPMorgan analysis and CME FedWatch data, explicitly states that the market had priced in "odds of nearly 100%" for a rate move. This figure is clearly in excess of the 90% threshold mentioned in the statement.However, there is some conflicting data that must be considered. Other highly credible sources, Reuters and Bloomberg, cite slightly lower probabilities of 85% and 80%, respectively, also referencing the CME FedWatch tool. This discrepancy does not necessarily render the statement false. Market-implied probabilities are dynamic and fluctuate based on new information and trading activity. It is plausible that the reports captured snapshots on different days or at different times. The statement only requires the probability to have "exceeded 90%" at some point, not that it remained there constantly.Given that a credible source reported a figure "nearly 100%", it provides a strong basis to conclude the 90% threshold was crossed. The lower figures from other top-tier sources temper absolute certainty but do not invalidate the claim, as they still confirm the overwhelmingly high probability. Therefore, the evidence strongly supports the statement as being likely true.