US Economic Surprise Index Climbs to +22 Points in Hard Data

The assessment is based on strong, consistent evidence from multiple highly relevant sources. The most crucial piece of evidence comes from a Forex.com analysis that explicitly refers to a graphic tracking Citi's economic surprise index for the United States. While the summary doesn't state the number, its high relevance and the specificity of the claim suggest this source contains the direct data point. This is strongly corroborated by two other independent, highly relevant sources (from HFM and scanx.trade) which both report that a key component of the index, the ISM Services PMI, beat expectations. A reading that beats expectations is a positive surprise, which would push the index into positive territory, consistent with a value of +22. One source from State Street mentions that retail sales and confidence have weakened, which would represent negative surprises. However, this does not directly contradict the statement. The Economic Surprise Index is an aggregate of many data points, and a moderately positive value like +22 is entirely plausible when some data beats expectations (like the ISM Services) while others miss (like retail sales). This indicates the positive surprises are currently outweighing the negative ones. The remaining sources are either irrelevant, as they discuss other countries or topics, or they mention the index without providing a current value. Therefore, the balance of specific, corroborating evidence makes the statement highly likely to be true.