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Polymarket Predicts 89% Chance of No Trump Gold Card Sales in 2025 Despite Trump's $1.3 Billion Claim

On Dec. 20, Trump touted $1.3 billion in Gold Card sales, but Polymarket’s data shows a strong probability of zero finalized transactions this year.

Summary

Donald Trump stated on Dec. 20 that Trump Gold Card sales had reached $1.3 billion, describing demand as 'booming'. Polymarket counters that only finalized and paid amounts count toward sales, maintaining odds at 89% for zero transactions in 2025. The Trump Gold Card offers U.S. residency to foreign investors for $1 million plus $15,000 in fees.

Terms & Concepts
  • Prediction market: A platform where users trade contracts tied to the outcomes of future events, with prices reflecting the perceived probability of those outcomes.
  • Polymarket: A blockchain-based prediction market platform that allows participants to speculate on real-world events using cryptocurrency.