CME Data Shows 11.6% Chance of Fed Rate Cut in January, March Odds Shift Toward Hold

The assessment is based on a strong convergence of evidence from both primary and secondary sources. The definitive primary source for this data is the CME FedWatch Tool. While the provided link is to the tool itself and not a static snapshot of the data, its identity as the origin is confirmed. More importantly, multiple independent and authoritative secondary sources directly corroborate the specific data point. A Yahoo Finance article, an analysis from the investment firm EXANTE, and a cryptocurrency news site all explicitly state that the CME FedWatch tool indicates a 24.4% probability of a rate cut in January. The consistency of the specific number (24.4%) and the correct attribution to the CME tool across these varied sources provides very strong support for the statement's truthfulness. There are no conflicting sources provided; those that mention different probabilities are for a different month (December) and are therefore not contradictory. The high authority of the primary source (CME Group) and the strong corroboration from credible secondary sources (Yahoo Finance, EXANTE) result in a high confidence level that the statement is an accurate reflection of the market data at the time of reporting.