AI Surge Drives DRAM Inventory Down 80% Year-on-Year

The evidence from the most authoritative and relevant sources strongly supports the conclusion that DRAM inventory has undergone a severe decrease. Multiple reports from TrendForce, a major market intelligence firm, describe supplier inventory as "bottoming out" and being a key factor in price surges. One specific TrendForce report quantifies this by stating smartphone memory inventories have fallen to "below 4 weeks," a critically low level. This is corroborated by another source mentioning inventories are at "sub-one-month levels," which is described as crisis territory.A drop to such a low level makes the 80% year-on-year figure highly plausible. For example, a decrease from a more typical inventory level of 20 weeks down to 4 weeks would represent an 80% reduction. There is conflicting evidence, but it is not strong enough to outweigh the supporting data. A financial report for Samsung shows an increase in company-wide inventory days, but this figure is for the entire conglomerate (including phones, appliances, etc.) and is not specific to its DRAM division, making it a weak rebuttal. Another source analyzing Micron shows a much smaller inventory decrease over a two-year period, but this is from a less authoritative source than TrendForce and the exact methodology for calculating inventory is unclear. Overall, the consistent reporting of a massive inventory depletion from the most credible industry sources makes the statement that DRAM inventory decreased by 80% year-on-year very likely to be true, with the 80% figure being a reasonable quantification of the described market conditions.