Polymarket Updates Odds for Trump’s Federal Reserve Chair Nominee
Kalshi market odds show Kevin Warsh slightly ahead of Kevin Hassett, following Trump’s statement that he has chosen a Fed chair nominee without naming the candidate.
Fact Check
The statement is strongly supported by high-authority primary sources. The core of the claim is directly confirmed by evidence from the Polymarket platform itself. A primary source from Polymarket lists a specific prediction market titled "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?". This directly establishes the existence of the relevant market. Another primary source, a user profile on the platform, shows trading activity in this exact market. Crucially, it shows the price for the "No" outcome at 98¢, which on Polymarket translates directly to a 98% probability. The "No" outcome for the question "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?" is functionally equivalent to the statement's claim that "no new Fed Chair will be announced by the end of 2025." Additional sources, including news articles and other pages on the Polymarket site, corroborate that the platform is actively used for predictions regarding the next Fed Chair. There is no conflicting evidence among the provided sources.
Summary
On January 9, President Trump told The New York Times he has decided who will be the next Federal Reserve chair but did not reveal the nominee. Kalshi prediction market data places Kevin Warsh at 41% odds, Kevin Hassett at 39%, and Christopher Waller at 12%. This closely matches prior Polymarket figures, reflecting ongoing uncertainty among traders until the official announcement.
Terms & Concepts
- Federal Reserve Chair: The head of the U.S. central banking system, responsible for guiding monetary policy.
- Prediction Market: A market where participants trade contracts tied to future events, with prices reflecting collective expectations.