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Market Sees 11.6% Chance of Fed Rate Cut in January Meeting

Polymarket trading data shows a strong likelihood of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady in January 2026, with minimal probability for rate cuts or hikes.

Summary

Polymarket data indicates a 92% probability the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its January 2026 meeting. Odds for a 25 basis point cut stand at 8%, while probabilities for larger cuts or hikes are under 1%. The related contract attracted $180 million in trades, reflecting significant market engagement in the rate outcome forecast.

Terms & Concepts
  • Federal Reserve: The central banking system of the United States, responsible for setting monetary policy, including interest rates.
  • Rate Cut: A reduction in the benchmark interest rate set by a central bank to stimulate economic activity.