CME's FedWatch now indicates a reduced likelihood of a January cut but a notable probability for easing by March amid strong economic growth data.
According to CME's FedWatch, as of January 8, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January stands at 11.6%, with 88.4% odds of holding rates. For March, the odds are 40.3% for a 25 bp cumulative cut, 55.4% to hold, and 4.3% for a 50 bp cut. These figures follow the U.S.'s reported 4.3% annualized GDP growth in Q3, the strongest since late 2023.