Polymarket odds show reduced confidence in LIT’s valuation exceeding $4B as launch trading data signals lower market expectations.
LIT launched with a $2.41 billion Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV), lower than pre-launch projections of $3.423 billion. One day after launch, Polymarket odds for FDV exceeding $2 billion fell from 85.5% to 76.3%, while probabilities of surpassing $4 billion dropped from 23% to 7%. Top holder Nijntje holds $327,000 in Lighter shares, marking the largest position in their portfolio. Previously, the largest LIT long whale held a $3.12 million leveraged position with tiered take-profits set between $4.12 and $6.