Polymarket declined a $2.76 million payout on a market forecasting a U.S. invasion of Venezuela, despite reports of U.S. military action and control over sites in the country. The platform modified its market rules after the events to exclude such scenarios, sparking controversy. Investigations have connected Trump‑aligned investor Steven Charles Witkoff and other insiders to trades that benefited from the exclusion, raising concerns about market integrity, political bias, and insider trading within the blockchain-based prediction market.