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CME FedWatch Shows Rising Odds of U.S. Rate Cut by March

CME FedWatch Shows Rising Odds of U.S. Rate Cut by March

CME FedWatch data reveals that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January has dropped, while expectations for a March cut are gaining ground.

Summary

CME FedWatch data now shows a 2.8% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January, a significant decline from 11.6%. The probability of holding rates steady surged to 97.2%, while the chance of a rate cut in March fell to 32.3%.

Terms & Concepts
  • CME FedWatch: A tool by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) used to estimate the probability of Federal Reserve interest rate changes based on futures market data.
  • Basis Point: A common unit of measure for interest rates, equal to one hundredth of one percent (0.01%).