US Consumers Report 15.3% Chance of Missing Debt Payments

The assessment is based on strong, consistent evidence from the most authoritative and relevant sources. The primary source is a news release from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the institution that creates and publishes the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), which is the origin of this specific data point. This source's high authority (0.95) and relevance (0.90) make it the most crucial piece of evidence. The claim is further corroborated by a highly relevant secondary source, a CNBC article reporting directly on the New York Fed's findings. The remaining sources are irrelevant and do not impact the assessment; one concerns European consumers, another discusses a different US consumer survey, and the last is a low-authority commercial website. As there is no conflicting evidence and the claim is directly supported by the primary data source, the statement is very likely to be true.