CME FedWatch Shows Low Odds of January Rate Cut Before CPI Data

The evidence from multiple high-authority sources overwhelmingly supports the statement. The core claim is that the CME FedWatch tool indicated a *specific* probability for a January rate cut prior to the CPI data release. Several sources confirm this directly.A highly authoritative and relevant source explicitly states that the session prior to the inflation data, there was a 4.4% chance of a rate cut according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Another source, published three days before the likely CPI release, corroborates this by citing a 5% chance of a cut (or 95% chance of a hold) and identifies the upcoming CPI data as the 'next big test'. A third source also directly states that prior to the CPI release, the tool indicated a 16% probability.While there is a discrepancy in the exact probability cited (4.4%, 5%, 16%), this does not invalidate the statement. Instead, it strengthens the core claim that a *specific* probability was being tracked and reported. The variance in numbers is easily explained by the fact that these probabilities are dynamic and were reported at different times leading up to the CPI release; other sources note that recent jobs data had already caused shifts in the odds. The consistency across multiple sources in reporting a specific, quantifiable probability before the CPI data release makes the statement very likely to be true.