Back

CME FedWatch Shows Low Odds of Early 2025 Rate Cuts

According to CME FedWatch on January 20, markets assign just a 5% chance of a January rate cut, with March odds tilting modestly toward a hold despite some probability of easing.

Summary

CME FedWatch on January 20 indicates a 5% probability of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in January and 95% odds of no change. For March, probabilities are 20.7% for a 25 bps cut, 78.4% for no change, and 0.9% for a 50 bps cut.

Terms & Concepts
  • CME FedWatch: A tool provided by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (U.S. derivatives market) to gauge market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate changes.
  • Basis Points: A unit of measure equal to 0.01%, commonly used to express changes in interest rates.