Polymarket Estimates 80% Chance of U.S. Government Shutdown by Late January

The statement is strongly supported by multiple high-authority, primary sources directly from the Polymarket website. One primary source, the Polymarket politics page, explicitly shows a prediction market for an 'Another US government shutdown' with a 77% probability for 'Yes,' which perfectly matches the claim. Another primary source from the homepage shows a nearly identical figure of 78% for the same market, 'Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?'. This minor 1% difference is expected in a live, fluctuating prediction market and serves as strong corroboration, not a contradiction. Several other pages on the Polymarket site confirm the existence of this specific market. Furthermore, multiple secondary sources, including a Facebook post by Forex Factory and several tweets, independently report the 77% figure from Polymarket, reinforcing the primary evidence. There is no conflicting evidence; the sources discussing a shutdown's duration are irrelevant as they pertain to a different question and a different year (2026).